Crocodiles and Calculated Risks

“Hey, did you see the crocodile?” a local woman called out, laughing, to her friend.

He was floating placidly in the clear blue waters of Bitter Springs, down near Mataranka in the Northern Territory of Australia.

My husband and I, who, up to that point, had also been getting ready to float peacefully down the stream, looked at each other in consternation.

Was she serious? Or just joking?

A little frisson of concern shivered down my spine. I mean, who wants to meet a crocodile when all you were expecting was a brief reprieve from the heat?!

But we’d kind of gotten over the terror that the thought of meeting said crocodile used to bring. This was freshwater crocodile territory, and they’ll only attack if you bother them. And we were pretty confident we weren’t stupid enough to bother a “freshie.” So, we decided to keep paddling.

You see, we’d developed confidence in our ability to look out for things near the water that unexpectedly go snap. Just like you need confidence to help you reach the success you want in your business or personal life.

But as much as confidence is essential, so is knowing when you’re paddling too close to danger. In business, you need to trust your instincts and know when it’s time to take a calculated risk—or get out altogether.

1. Trust Your Instincts (But Don’t Panic)

Even though we heard that woman's laughing comment about the crocodile, we kept paddling our way downstream.

Why?

Because we had confidence in the situation and knew that if we were careful, we were safe. In business, especially for freelance writers, you might hear whispers about a client being difficult or unreliable. Just like with the crocodile, it’s important to stay alert but not to panic right away.

Imagine you’re working with a client who initially seemed fine but starts piling on unrealistic demands or constantly criticizes your work. Maybe they never seem satisfied, or they devalue your contribution.

The first few times, you may brush it off, thinking it’s just a rough patch. But as the red flags pile up, it’s essential to trust your instincts. Are they making your life harder than necessary? If the situation becomes toxic, it may be time to consider moving on.

2. Assessing Risk: What’s the Worst That Could Happen?

After our first float downriver, we jumped out and headed upstream for another go. Just as we jumped in, a different lady, (who sounded like a tourist), called out to ask if we’d seen the crocodile. When we said no and didn't look that worried, she hesitated and mentioned that she’d heard someone else saw one. I thought she was referring to the first lady’s "joke", so we paddled off again, unconcerned.

In business, this is where assessing the real risk comes into play. Sometimes, you’ll hear things that sound worrisome, but upon closer inspection, they might not be worth the worry. You need to do some critical thinking here and ask: what’s the worst that could happen?

Suppose you’re approached by a client who offers what seems like an incredible opportunity, but something just doesn’t feel right. Maybe they’re offering exposure instead of payment, or there’s an upfront cost with vague promises of big rewards. Before grabbing on with both hands, take a moment to assess the potential risks. Is the reward worth that risk? If not, walk away before you find yourself paddling in dangerous waters.

3. When to Walk Away: The Final Warning

On our third trip down the narrow stream, a third lady called out, “Hey, did you see the crocodile?” This time, we looked up and realized it was someone local. And she wasn’t joking.

“It was a big one,” she said. “So I got out.”

That was enough for us to take a more cautious approach. The risk had escalated and it suddenly wasn’t quite so peaceful anymore. But we stayed in the water.

In business, there will be moments when the warnings start to pile up. A client who seemed difficult might turn into someone who refuses to pay, or a project that started off promising could spiral into a time-consuming mess. That’s when it’s time to seriously consider walking away.

If you’re chasing unpaid invoices from a client who continually dodges your calls and emails, it’s time to make a hard decision. No matter how much work you’ve put in, if the client isn’t paying, it’s not worth sticking around. Walking away might feel like a loss, but it’s better than pouring more energy into something that won’t pay off.

4. Stay Vigilant, Even When Things Seem Fine

Even after we heard that the crocodile was real and not someone’s idea of a joke, we didn’t immediately get out of the water. But we DID keep a weather eye out for it and any other lurking dangers.

Every time we paddled downstream, we kept just that little bit more alert. In business, even when things are going smoothly, it’s important to stay vigilant and keep a close watch for any risks that may arise.

For example, say you’ve worked with a major client for years and everything seems fine. But if you rely too much on that one client for your income, or if their terms slowly start to erode your rates, it might be time to rethink the relationship.

Long-term clients are great, but don’t get so comfortable that you miss the signs that the relationship may no longer be as beneficial as it once was.

5. Take Calculated Risks: Sometimes It’s Worth Staying in the Water

Finally, let’s talk about taking calculated risks. We knew we were paddling in freshwater crocodile territory. But we’d weighed the risk. Freshwater crocs aren’t typically aggressive, and we felt confident we could handle the situation.

Sometimes, in business, you have to take a risk to grow.

There will be moments when you need to invest in your business, without being certain you'll get a return on that investment. Whether it’s enrolling in a new course, hiring a coach, or investing in new tools, these decisions come with some level of risk.

But that kind of calculated investment risk can lead to big rewards. Just like we weighed the risk of staying in the water, you’ll need to assess the potential upside of investing in yourself and your business and decide whether the risk is worth it within your current circumstances.

Conclusion: Balancing Risk and Reward

Just like swimming in waters where a crocodile might be lurking, navigating your freelance business requires a careful balance of risk and reward. Whether you’re dealing with a difficult client, chasing unpaid invoices, or deciding whether to invest in your own growth, the key is to stay alert and trust your instincts. Not every risk is dangerous, but knowing when to stay and when to walk away is critical to your long-term success.

If you’re ready to take a calculated risk, invest in yourself and grow your business, book a Business Growth Strategy session with me and we'll do a deep dive into how we can turn a challenge you're currently facing into opportunities for business growth.

About the Author

Trudy Rankin is an online business strategist and content creator who loves writing about quirky or funny experiences that teach life lessons.  She and her husband live in Melbourne Australia and enjoy renovating campervans and traveling, especially to visit family.